NATO: The Way Out of Afghanistan

http://unnamedharald.hubpages.com/hub/NATO-The-Way-Out-of-Afghanistan#

Ground Lines of Communication

NATO is looking for a way out of Afghanistan. No, literally, they are looking for a way out of Afghanistan. They've been there 11 years and have accumulated a lot of stuff in that time and, as 2014 approaches, a lot of stuff has to be moved out. Only troops and weapons are airlifted in and out of landlocked Afghanistan, as this is extremely expensive and there is only so much capacity. The main ground route into and out of Afghanistan is through Pakistan, what the military, in its inimitable fashion, calls PAKGLOC, or PAKistan Ground Lines of Communication. When NATO airstrikes killed Pakistani soldiers in November 2011, Islamabad closed this route down.

The Northern Distribution Network

Since then, most “non-lethal” supplies and equipment have arrived in Afghanistan via what is called the Northern Distribution Network, or NDN. This 3,100 mile network of seas, roads and rails is already expensive, time-consuming and subject to physical and political realities. The countries involved are Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Latvia, Estonia and Russia. Via this network, supplies start their journey either in a Black Sea port in Georgia or the Baltic Sea port of Riga, Latvia (or, to a lesser extent, Tallinn, Estonia). The realities include dictators, support for Iran, fear of Iran, fear of spreading extremism, the NATO missile shield, poor infrastructure, the constant loading and offloading of goods between ships, rail and trucks, et al. Russia, the main player, sees NATO at its front door in the Baltic countries and its backdoor in Afghanistan (and in its basement in the other “stans” in Central Asia-- all former Soviet Republics). On the other hand, they don't want all that NATO equipment falling into the hands of the Taliban or other extremist groups. They would prefer that NATO wipe out the Taliban then get the hell out, otherwise, the Russians see themselves worrying about Afghanistan... again. It's not like anything is black and white here.

NATO supply lines crossing through the Pakistani territory. Work derivative based on the Pakistan location map created by User:NordNordWest.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NATO_supply_routes_through_Pakistan.svg

$17,500 Per Container

NATO would much rather use PAKGLOC than NDN. The average cost to ship out a container via Pakistan is $7,200 and it doesn't take as long, while shipping it via the Northern Distribution Network costs $17,500. As the deadline of 2014 looms, costs will go through the roof. Already deals for bases in the “stans” are being renegotiated-- upwards, way up.

Lots of Stuff

NATO find themselves in a bind. Not only do they not want to arm the Taliban-- sorry, the Afghan Army-- more than is necessary, hard times are upon us all-- even the military. Chump change like a billion here or a billion there is suddenly needed elsewhere, so the military forces of the various countries are watching their pennies. It is estimated that 130,000 soldiers, 70,000 vehicles and 120,000 containers must be moved out by 2014. They are quite aware of Afghanistan's history with invaders. When Britain withdrew in 1842, almost none of the 17,000 troops made it out alive. The Soviets had to fight their way out in places-- and their exit was a factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union.

All of a Sudden Some of These Guys Don't Look So Bad

The actual exit for NATO is being carefully studied and it includes one of the most effective weapons in their arsenal: public praise for former bad-guys, selective amnesia and mega-lucrative contracts. Kyrgyzstan is threatening to not renew the lease of its airbase to the US in its capital, Bishkek. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visited there in March, 2012, to tell them how important they are. No one yet knows how much the lease will increase. Uzbekistan's dictator, whom the US cut off relations with in 2005 when he brutally suppressed an uprising, has had conversations with President Obama and visits from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and others. Clinton recently announced Uzbekistan has made progress on human rights issues and trade barriers will be lifted. If all is well in Uzbekistan, they may also find that some of the transported equipment may “fall off the trucks” including armored vehicles, small arms and other equipment and perhaps even drones.

 Russia: About Face

That doesn't sit well with Russia, whose leadership, up to the recent elections, had been beating the drum about the evils of NATO, how NATO was encircling Russia and how NATO wanted to set up bases inside Russia. But now that elections are over and there's real money to be had, they are telling the aroused public to cool it a little-- NATO just wants to pass through, not set up camp, for crying out loud. The missile defense shield NATO wants to deploy in Eastern Europe? The way the West treats Iran and Syria? Different subjects. Pay attention people. Negotiations are even underway to include the airport at Ulyanovsk, Russia in the Northern Distribution Network. Ulyanovsk, the birthplace of Lenin, is a depressed area and it sure would appreciate the business.