By
Forecast International on
Wednesday, March 21st, 2012
In a new study, "The Market for Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft," Forecast International projects that that 4,384 of these rotorcraft will be produced during the 10-year period from 2012 through 2021. The value of this production, as calculated in constant FY12 U.S. dollars, is $104.1 billion. The study defines a medium/heavy rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 pounds).
In a new study, "The Market for Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft," Forecast International projects that that 4,384 of these rotorcraft will be produced during the 10-year period from 2012 through 2021. The value of this production, as calculated in constant FY12 U.S. dollars, is $104.1 billion. The study defines a medium/heavy rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of at least 6,804 kilograms (15,000 pounds).
According
to the study, the medium/heavy military rotorcraft market is on the verge of a
production down cycle that will last several years. Forecast International projects that annual production of medium/heavy
military rotorcraft will decline from 512 units in 2012 to 399 units in 2017.
In 2018, production is anticipated to rise slightly, to 402 units, before
resuming a decline the following year. Production in 2021, the final year of
the forecast period, is expected to total 376 units.
This expected downturn in the market
follows a period of strong market growth that has been fueled by high levels of
rotorcraft acquisition by the U.S. military and others. However, defense
spending in many nations is increasingly under pressure, and very few major new
military helicopter procurement programs have materialized to keep production
rates at manufacturers rising or even stable. At the same time, many key ongoing
acquisition programs are already several years into their production runs, and
will soon run their course. Others have been stretched out, with annual
production lots reduced in size.
Plans for new-start acquisition programs
are in particular jeopardy. In the U.S., the Air Force's Common Vertical Lift Support Platform (CVLSP)
program has already been terminated. The Navy's VXX presidential transport helicopter could soon follow, or at
least be significantly delayed. For now, the Air Force's Combat Rescue
Helicopter (CRH) project looks like it will proceed, but this could change.
The longer term Joint Multi-Role (JMR)
program, if allowed to proceed, is an important effort for the U.S. military
and the rotorcraft industry. This project is aimed at developing a new
rotorcraft family to meet future U.S. attack, scout, and utility rotorcraft
needs. Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski said,
"The JMR program promises to develop the U.S. military's first all-new
medium/heavy rotorcraft since the V-22." Program plans call for the
initial JMR-based rotorcraft to enter service in the 2025-2030 timeframe.
The
Forecast International study also includes projections of manufacturer market
shares for the 10-year forecast period. The
study indicates that Sikorsky will lead the market in both unit production and
production value during the 2012-2021 timeframe. Sikorsky has a solid
business foundation based primarily, though not exclusively, on U.S. Army procurement of its UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter.
AgustaWestland, Boeing, Eurocopter, and Russian Helicopters are among the other
key players in the medium/heavy military rotorcraft market.
Forecast
International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis
in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.
Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range
industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing
professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide
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